Mr. Adams to Mr. Seward, January 31, 1862

Mr. Adams to Mr.
Seward.

Sir: The expectations of a declaration of some
kind from the Emperor of the French on the subject of the American
difficulty which might be made the basis of an agitation here have been
disappointed. Whatever is to be done must be originated in Parliament by
the avowed friends of the rebels. All the particular grounds of
complaint against the United States have been successively removed from
under them. The parties seized in the Trent are now safe on this side of
the Atlantic. The blocking up of Charleston harbor is shown to be no
real grievance. The inefficiency of the blockade is the only remaining
proposition which it is attempted to support by evidence. Even that
would be met by proof drawn from the admissions made by the insurgents
at home, if it could have been supplied in a tolerably authentic form. I
regret that I have not at my command any official tabular statement of
the number of vessels turned off or taken during the period of blockade,
or evidence of the price of the various commodities of foreign growth or
manufacture rendered scarce by the operations of the blockading force.
But inasmuch as the government is obviously disinclined to sustain an
objection of this kind just now, the probability is that nothing will be
made out of it. There is, then, not a particle of solid material for the
dissatisfaction with the government of the United States, based on its
own policy, to make a quarrel out of. Resort must then be had to the
simple objection that the rebellion has not been suppressed. This will
be urged as justifiable cause for early recognition; and upon that issue
the sense of the House of Commons will probably be sooner or later
taken. At this moment it is impossible to estimate the strength of
parties, or the character of the division. The impression is that the
conservatives generally favor such a measure, of which thus far I see no
evidence beyond the general tendency of one or two newspapers in that
interest, which I have had occasion to suspect not to be trustworthy
organs. I am rather inclined to the belief that this subject has not yet
become a party question in the eyes of the members of either side. Each
individual, therefore, indulges his particular opinion. There is no knowing how soon it may become
so. That will depend upon the chances of making anything out of it in
case of a conflict. The ministry are notoriously feeble in Parliament,
whilst the conservatives are strong only whilst confining themselves
strictly within a negative position. Hence the situation of both parties
rests equally upon an avoidance, at least for the present, of test
questions. Lord Palmerston is sufficiently popular to make it hazardous
to attempt to dislodge him by a coup de main in
Parliament, which would inevitably be followed by a formidable
opposition headed by him. The more eligible course has thus far been
thought to be to await the moment, which cannot be long delayed, of his
retreat, when Lord Derby is expected to be summoned to take his place
with the consent of all but the radical section of the people. This will
be an era for a reconstruction of parties.

Such has been the programme down to the assembling of Parliament. What
shape things may take afterwards it is impossible to predict. That the
American question is to be a serious element in any calculation of its
action everything conspires to make us believe. I shall endeavor, so far
as it may be within my power, to keep you informed of the movements as
they occur.

I have the honor to be, sir, your obedient servant,