Partridge to Hamilton Fish, May 20, 1874

No. 60. Mr. Partridge to Mr. Fish.

Sir: On the 5th instant the session of the legislative chambers was opened by a speech from the Throne, a translation of which is hereto annexed.

It will be seen that this time the Rio Branco ministry have not followed their own example on previous occasions, and made no allusion to all the most important events or measures of the year.

They were obliged to speak of the ecclesiastical question, in which they have triumphed, but have nothing to say on the question of civil marriage, which has formed part of that discussion, nor of the attitude of the Argentine Republic, which has taken up most attention since the trial of the bishops.

Since then nothing has been done, because the ministry finds itself with a bare majority of one or two, and which threatens to disappear, so that no measure of importance or reform that was needed and promised has been brought forward or discussed.

When the ministerial party find, at a session, that their members are not all present, they depart, so as to leave the chambers without a quorum, so that an adjournment till next day takes place, which is repeated on the morrow if the steamer on which some of their adherents are to arrive has not come in.

Meantime we hear less talk of war from Buenos Ayres, where the result of the election for president is still in doubt. Here, however, they think this is only a delay on the part of the Argentines; so the naval armaments continue, and every vessel of the Brazilian navy is put in order for service.

The Argentine consul-general (chargé ad interim) informs me that he thinks there is no adequate cause for all this preparation here for defense, and regards it as a threat on this side which may bring about the thing they profess to wish to avoid. From what he as well as others from there tell me, and from the experience we have had of this war-cry for now three years, I am inclined to think that there is every day less probability of war, as I have already informed the Department. The message of the Argentine president to the chambers just opened in Buenos Ayres also appears to confirm this hope.

It is said that in case the present ministry should find itself without a majority, there might be some change in its composition, perhaps of leaders, so as to go on with the present house; for it is believed that the Emperor is unwilling to grant a dissolution, being anxious that the proposed electoral reforms should be adopted so as to govern any new election.

The chances, however, seem to be that the Viscount Rio Branco will remain; and, perhaps, the reduction of the export duty, (from 9 per cent, to 7 per cent.,) which he told me he intended to propose in favor of cotton and sugar, may assist it.

I am, &c.,