Mr. Adams to Mr. Seward, December 27, 1861

Mr. Adams to Mr.
Seward.

Sir: Although many of the leading presses
zealously continue their efforts to keep up the war feeling here against
the United States, I think the signs are clear of a considerable degree of reaction and
a growing hope that the friendly relations between the two countries may
be preserved. Of course everybody is waiting to hear of the issue of the
demands transmitted by the Europa. Much gratification has been expressed
at the publication of the despatch addressed by M. Thouvenel to the
government through M. Mercier, as also the treatment of the question of
the Trent by M. Hautefeuille. Indeed, the harmony of sentiment on this
subject is so general throughout Europe as to have very much increased
the confidence of the British ministry in their position. They are even
disposed to put up, with unusual patience, with the severe reflections
made on the past policy of Great Britain in consideration of the
substantial advantage they gain in the immediate dispute. Unquestionably
the view of all other countries is that the opportunity is most
fortunate for obtaining new and large modifications of international law
which will hereafter materially restrain the proverbial tendency of this
country on the ocean. My own opinions to the same effect have been
already so freely expressed that it is needless, if it were not also
superfluous, to repeat them, especially now that the decision is
probably complete.

But even if it should be possible to escape the immediate danger from the
present difficulty, my confidence in the tendency of things towards
peace in this country has been so much shaken as to make the prospects
for the future quite doubtful. Parliament will probably assemble
somewhat earlier than has been anticipated, perhaps by the 16th of
January. It will then be impossible to avoid a general expression of
opinion upon American affairs. Of what a character that will be, some
idea may be formed from the various addresses made during the recess by
members to their respective constituencies. As usual in all deliberative
assemblies having freedom of speech, the popular tendency will be
towards the most positive doctrines. The war party will in this
particular enjoy the advantage, which they will not fail to use with
effect against the ministry of Lord Palmerston, especially if there be
the smallest opportunity of reproaching it for any concession on a point
of honor. Even if in this particular they should find it difficult to
make an issue, they will not fail to go on and urge the application of a
limit to the law of blockade, as well as to the refusal to recognize a
de facto government. In both these cases the
ground has been already broken by the public press, and by particular
members. So that although Lord Russell, in a portion of his latest
conversation with me, affirmed that we should have full opportunity
given to us of trying our experiment of overcoming the rebellion before
action on their part, it is not quite clear to my mind that he will very
long retain the power to make his words good. I have felt it my duty at
this time to enter into such speculations, solely because I think I
ought to prepare your mind for the possibilities that may follow a
settlement of the immediate difficulty. Neither do I wish to undervalue
the amount of sympathy and good will that may be brought into play to
avert the threatened danger. It is from the friends of our government
that I gather most of my conclusions. And one of them is that nothing
but very marked evidences of progress towards success will restrain for
any length of time the hostile tendencies developed by the case of the
Trent.

I am happy to say that I have seen and conferred repeatedly both with
Bishop McIlvain and Mr. Weed. I think their services have already been
of material use, and that they will be of still more hereafter if
peaceful relations should be preserved. The industry of the confederate
emissaries in poisoning the sources of opinion, as well as in
disseminating wholly erroneous notions of the nature of the struggle in
America, has been unvaried. And where the seed has fallen on favorable
ground it has germinated strongly and fructified well. But the effort to
conceal the true issue and to substitute a false one has failed. The
progress of affairs in America is daily more and more exposing its real character. Much as the
commercial and manufacturing interests may be disposed to view the
tariff as the source of all our evils, and much as the aristocratic
classes may endeavor to make democracy responsible for them, the
inexorable logic of events is contradicting each and every assertion
based on these notions, and proving that the American struggle is, after
all, the ever-recurring one in human affairs between right and wrong,
between labor and capital, between liberty and absolutism. When such an
issue comes to be presented to the people of Great Britain, stripped of
all the disguises which have been thrown over it, it is not difficult to
predict at least which side it will not consent to take.

* * * * * * * * *

I have the honor to be, sir, your obedient servant,