John Quincy Adams to John Adams, March 24, 1801

Berlin 24. March 1801.

My dear Sir.

My last letter to you, was of November 25. since which I have not
enjoyed the pleasure of receiving a line either from my mother or from you— To her I
have in the interval written once; and now enclose a press-copy of the letter, in case
the original should fail in the conveyance. 1 My numerous letters to the Secretary of State,
and to my brother will I hope apologize for my silence during so long a term, to
yourself.

By our latest intelligence from America, I find that my
anticipations relative to the ratification of the Convention with France have not been
realized, and that even a conditional ratification could not obtain the necessary
majority of votes in the Senate— The situation of the United States therefore, in their
foreign concerns is far from being so advantageous and safe as I had flattered my self
it would be, upon your quitting the public administration— This circumstance I deeply
lament, not on your account but on that of my Country— The means of peace and safety
were in her own hands, and had in spite of innumerable obstacles and difficulties been
procured by your resolution and perseverance— That they were rejected it was impossible
for you to prevent; and for all the consequences good or bad which may ensue from the
system pursued in preference to yours, the praise or the blame must rest elsewhere— Of
any good that will ultimately result from this refusal of compromise, I have no hope— Of
great evils that may arise from it there is strong ground
for apprehension— My principal reliance for preservation from those evils is upon the
bounties of Providence, which are so often an effectual shield, when all the wisdom and
all the virtue of man prove impotent—

From the time when it was certain that a decided division had taken place among the friends of the American
Government, I was convinced that its consequence would be to throw the country into the
hands of their antagonists— The most unexpected thing
therefore in the issue of the late election, was to my mind, that the anti federal majority was not larger. So long as the power was held by the federalists,
their principles were better calculated to promote the national prosperity than those of
their opponents— But if they had adopted for a maxim that a foreign war must be
fostered, for the sake of maintaining an army, and
increasing the public debt, it was time that they should be removed from the management
of affairs.

With respect to you as these events affect you personally, it is
not for me to tell you, that the leaders (as they are called) of the federal party, or
at least many of them, are the persons who at heart will
feel the sincerest pleasure at the loss of your election— After the first moment of
secret exultation at the issue, your successor will find that the contested place is not
a bed of roses, and his enjoyments in it, if any such he find, will often be dashed by
the consciousness that in justice it was not his proper place— His friends and partizans
who put him in it, will many of them feel the same unacknowledged rankling in the
breast, at his elevation, as those of the other party did at your’s; and amid the
general pleasure of a party triumph, every single heart will yearn with some individual
mortification— But the federal great men—The men of profound genius, and
all-comprehensive talents, who are alone qualified for the government of Empires; the
lynx-eyed statesmen and the Lion-hearted warriors who look down with eyes of pity upon
your services, while for party purposes they extol them, and think you might do for
President, since there was no hope of their getting the station for themselves— These
are the people who in the general ruin of federalism will find the soothing consolation
that in the misfortunes of our best friends there is always something not displeasing. How many of these characters there are, I am
not near enough to observe— It is a breed common to all ages of the world and to every
civilized nation— I trust you will not feel distress’d at their comforts, any more than
at the more loud-mouth’d triumphs of your avowed opponents.

Divisions of parties and changes of administrations are not
confined to our Country, at the present day— All Europe seems to have adopted them like
other cast-off french fashions. Total changes of ministry, proceeding from an important
change of political systems have very lately taken place in Austria and Russia, as well
as in Spain and Portugal— 2 But none of
them are of so great moment to the affairs of Europe, or indeed of the world, as the
dissolution of the strong phalanx which had for many years composed the British
Ministry.— The public are told that this is not to produce a change of system, and that
the only cause which occasioned it was a difference of
opinion between the king and those of his ministers who have retired, upon the question
of catholic emancipation in Ireland.— 3 But after the wind has blown long and steadily from one quarter it seldom starts half
round the compass at once. When it has changed a single point, the seaman were indeed a
fresh-water sailor who should expect it to remain as fix’d to its new station as it had
been to the last— The new English Ministers enter upon their offices at a moment of
unexampled embarrassment and danger, without possessing the resources of talents or of
reputation which their predecessors enjoyed— There is no probability that they will long
stand their ground, and as the opposition will henceforth constantly be gaining
strength, they must eventually force their way into the royal Councils, all prepared for
a peace of disgrace and submission— This will however in some measure depend upon the
result of external events.— Upon the success of the war, which they are obliged to
sustain against all Europe.— As it is not likely they can long resist the pressure of so
many enemies at once, we must look forward to that as the probable issue— On the other
hand there is only one thing to be said—which is, that the most important turns in the
affairs of Nations arise from unforeseen and uncalculated circumstances— In the war for
the Spanish succession, after ten years of continual defeats, France obtained her
object, at the very moment of her deepest distress, by the death of the Emperor
Joseph— 4 At the close of the seven
years war, when every circumstance that human reason could foresee and combine,
threatened the ruin of the king of Prussia, and the politicians of the time accordingly
prophesied it with as much confidence as if it had already happened, the death of the
Russian Empress Elizabeth, baffled all the anticipations of human foresight, and secured
to Frederic 2 a triumph over all his enemies— 5 At this moment, the death of Paul or of
Bonaparte, both of whom are doom’d constantly to dwell in the crater of a volcano, might
lead to a change no less unexpected and extraordinary than those— But in speaking of
present probabilities, as no account can be taken of such incidents, they must always be
considered as possibilities which if realized can only prove the mutability of human
concerns.

The removal of Count Panin from the office of Vice-chancellor in
Russia, followed by banishment to his country-seat, happened about three months ago—
M r: Kalütchew was made Vice-Chancellor, and at the same
time sent as Ambassador to Paris— This was probably done by Count Rostopsin, then minister of foreign affairs , who having long been the
emperor’s favourite, considered Panin as a rival for influence, and
thought that by having a mere titular Vice-chancellor and keeping him at a distance, he
should alone possess the keys of imperial favour— But the most formidable rival was not
a Vice-Chancellor or an Ambassador— It was a french opera-singer—the woman I mentioned
in my letter of Nov r: 25— She in her turn has overthrown Rostopsin , who has just been disgraced and exiled— Kalütchew,
remains Ambassador at Paris, but is no longer Vice-chancellor— That office has been
transferred to a Prince Kurakin, and a General von der Pahlen is minister of foreign
affairs— At the same time the banishment of Count Panin is removed, and he has
permission to reside at S t: Petersburg or Moscow at his own
option— 6

In Switzerland and Holland there is much talk of changes in the
Constitutions: all under the auspices of France— 7 But these perpetual discussions about written
forms of Government in Countries such as the Helvetic and Batavian republics, are only
sources of internal disquiet and agitation to them, while they shed indelible ridicule
upon the debates themselves in the eyes of other nations— These universally look upon
them as the deliberations of prisoners in a house of correction, to regulate the
management of the institution.

I am, Dear Sir, ever faithfully your’s

A.

P. S. I have directed a small chest of books which I have in
Holland, to be shipped for Boston to the care of M r: Smith— Of which I beg you to give him notice, and when they arrive to receive them
with my other library. 8